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Israeli officials have just confirmed that they are preparing for a possible military action by Trump against Iran in the coming days, with the military already at maximum alert, and the U.S. has made it clear that Iran is not allowed to retain any uranium enrichment capability. The Strait has just loosened slightly, and the knife is once again at the neck; WTI crude oil around $94 is a rare golden pit, and I directly entered full position with $410k in long contracts!
1. War premium is about to ignite wildly again. The U.S. and Israel's positions on Iran's uranium enrichment have completely collapsed, with Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei ordering a strict ban on exporting uranium stockpiles. This week's Iran nuclear negotiations have long been regarded by the market as the last act before "maximum pressure," with the next round scheduled for early June. During this period, it’s a perfect window for military action. Once war reignites, the daily crude oil supply of about 17 million barrels will hang in the balance.
2. Inventories have been drained, and oil prices can soar with just a slight spark. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration has issued a resounding warning: as of the week ending May 15, U.S. crude oil inventories plummeted nearly 18 million barrels, reaching the lowest level in nearly a year. Morgan Stanley bluntly stated that the buffer mechanism between the U.S. and China is about to run out, and oil prices face a historic breakthrough. Under this epic supply shock, any new geopolitical developments could push oil prices to $150. Currently, the risk premium for longs is almost zero, but physical shortages are still expanding. Once the conflict is confirmed, oil prices will inevitably gap higher at open.
3. Iran is ready to collect "tolls," turning the Strait into a noose around the shorts' necks. Iran is negotiating with U.S. ally Oman to establish a system of mandatory service fees for ships passing through the Strait. Over 160 supertankers are still stranded in the Persian Gulf, and the global supply chain has long been battered. Any attempt to control this critical waterway will directly escalate into a new round of tanker interceptions and attacks, triggering another surge.
The $410k long position is fully locked in, waiting for Trump’s war-tweet to trigger this sleeping war beast! #阿贵Btc