Trump team is about to leave Beijing, did they get what they wanted?

### Closing the visit to China, what did Trump get?

On May 13th, Trump began his return visit to China after 9 years. Meanwhile, the China-U.S. economic and trade team is holding consultations in Seoul, South Korea, with CCP Politburo member and State Council Vice Premier He Lifeng leading the delegation.

On the same day he set out, China and the U.S. simultaneously released the "Joint Statement on China-U.S. Geneva Trade Talks," with the U.S. promising to suspend 24% "reciprocal tariffs," and both sides announcing the establishment of a continuous consultation mechanism. This is the most important institutional achievement of this round of China visits.

Known achievements list

Technology and supply chain aspects:
• Nvidia H200 chip conditional lifting: U.S. Commerce Department has approved about 10 Chinese companies to purchase Nvidia H200 chips, including Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, JD.com, and other leading tech firms, with a single-company purchase limit of 75,000 units; Lenovo and Foxconn approved as distributors.

• U.S. Commerce Department has adjusted the H200 export policy from "presumed denial" to "case-by-case review" as of January 2026, but strict conditions remain: total processing performance (TPP) below 21,000, DRAM bandwidth below 6,500GB/s, and total exports to China must not exceed 50% of total U.S. exports during the same period.

Trade and tariff aspects:
• U.S. suspends for one year the implementation of maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding investigations under Section 301 against China;

• China correspondingly suspends countermeasures, and both sides continue to extend some tariff exclusion measures;

• China commits to expanding imports of agricultural products, energy, and aerospace equipment in response to the interests of U.S. agricultural states and manufacturing sectors.

Shipping and geopolitical aspects:
• Some Chinese merchant ships are permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, easing shipping pressure caused by regional tensions.

One sentence summary: Trump got what he needed most—tariff suspension (to explain to voters), limited easing of technology controls (to benefit Wall Street), and a visible large trade deal. But the price is "precise control" rather than "full liberalization," with every transaction subject to U.S. compliance review.

### Wosh officially takes office today, ushering in an "hawkish steering"

Today (May 15), Kevin Warsh officially succeeded Powell as the 17th Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The nomination was approved by the Senate with 54 votes in favor and 45 against.

Who is he?

• 56 years old, Harvard Law School J.D., Stanford University Bachelor of Public Policy;

• Former executive director of Morgan Stanley’s M&A department, became the youngest Federal Reserve governor in history at age 35 in 2006;

• During the 2008 financial crisis, was a core aide to Bernanke, but firmly opposed quantitative easing (QE), representing the "hawkish flag" within the Fed;

• After leaving in 2011, transitioned to a "pragmatic monetarist" advocate, supporting QT (balance sheet reduction) to curb inflation before cutting interest rates;

• Son-in-law of Estée Lauder family, with father-in-law Ronald Lauder being a Trump friend and key supporter.

Will he cut rates immediately?

Likely not.

In his confirmation hearing, Warsh explicitly stated: "I will rely on my judgment to set monetary policy, not follow White House instructions." At the same time, his "pragmatic monetarist" theory advocates: first use aggressive QT to withdraw excess liquidity and suppress inflation, then safely cut rates—meaning he will not cooperate with Trump’s rate-cutting demands early on, but instead prove he is not a "White House puppet."

More critically, current data shows: April U.S. CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year, hitting a new high since May 2023, while the Fed’s inflation target remains at 2%. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up oil and gasoline prices, further increasing inflationary pressures.

Market expectations: Warsh’s debut is likely hawkish (at least to demonstrate independence), with the June FOMC possibly maintaining the current 3.5%-3.75% rate range, and a rate cut in the second half depending on inflation decline. The long-term liquidity return remains the main trend, but the pace will be slower than market expectations.

### How to operate today? Three core logics

Logic 1: The "Sell the News" risk increases as the event day arrives

Today Trump leaves Beijing, and all known joint statements and signing results are on the table. The market will enter a "digestive phase"—after good news is realized, funds tend to rush to take profits.

Short-term strategy: Take profits, avoid chasing highs.

Logic 2: BNB is strongly fleeing, 70% is already a pass mark

In recent market movements, BNB performed the strongest, but I have already sold 70% of my holdings at high levels. The remaining can be fully sold or kept as a small core position—depending on your judgment of further good news.

Logic 3: Wosh’s speech is the next catalyst

• If Wosh hawks (most likely scenario), the market may experience a sharp decline, presenting a bottom-fishing opportunity

• If Wosh unexpectedly adopts a dovish stance, the market may temporarily rally, don’t rush to buy, wait for a pullback—an opportunity created by the "golden pit" of double negative signals

Trump leaving Beijing (good news exhausted) + Wosh hawking (new negative pressure), if these two events happen on the same day, it’s very likely to create a good entry point. Be patient, opportunities always favor the prepared.